Projected Nest Egg
$19,772.60
How it works
The Retirement Nest Egg Predictor estimates how long your retirement savings will last — or how large your nest egg needs to be — based on your planned annual withdrawal amount, expected portfolio return, and inflation rate. Based on the 4% rule and Monte Carlo-style analysis.
The 4% rule (Bengen's guideline) states that a retiree can withdraw 4% of their initial portfolio value each year, adjusted for inflation, with a high probability of the money lasting 30 years. This calculator applies that rule and extends it with customizable parameters.
How to use it: enter your current retirement savings, expected annual contribution, years to retirement, expected portfolio return during accumulation phase, expected return during drawdown, annual withdrawal amount in retirement (or let the calculator calculate the 4% rule amount), and inflation rate. The results show: - Projected nest egg at retirement - Sustainable withdrawal amount (4% rule) - How long the portfolio lasts at your planned withdrawal rate - Year-by-year drawdown table
Sequence of returns risk: early in retirement, a market downturn has a disproportionate impact on portfolio longevity. The calculator includes a sequence risk scenario showing how the worst historical 30-year sequences affected withdrawal sustainability.
Safe withdrawal rates: below 3.5% = very high probability of success (30+ years), 3.5–4% = standard planning range, 4–5% = moderate risk of shortfall, above 5% = high risk of outliving the money.
Privacy: retirement projections run in the browser.
Frequently Asked Questions
- The 4% rule (Bengen, 1994) states that withdrawing 4% of the portfolio in year 1 and adjusting for inflation each subsequent year has historically succeeded (portfolio lasted 30+ years) in 95% of historical scenarios for a 50/50 stock-bond portfolio. Some researchers now suggest 3–3.5% is safer given current valuations and low bond yields. 4% remains a widely used planning benchmark.
- Using the 4% rule: annual expenses × 25 = required nest egg. $40,000/year in retirement expenses requires $1,000,000. $60,000/year requires $1,500,000. $80,000/year requires $2,000,000. These figures exclude Social Security income — subtract expected Social Security payments from the annual withdrawal need before calculating the required portfolio size.
- For early retirement (FIRE — Financial Independence, Retire Early), the 4% rule may be too aggressive for a 40–50 year horizon. Many early retirees use 3–3.5% (implying 28.5–33× annual expenses as the target). The sequence of returns risk (poor early returns devastating a portfolio) is more severe over longer horizons.
- Yes. Enter your expected Social Security benefit (estimate at ssa.gov) in the annual income field. Subtract it from your annual expenses to calculate the gap that must be funded by the portfolio. If you expect $24,000/year in Social Security and need $60,000/year, only $36,000/year must come from the portfolio — requiring a $900,000 nest egg vs. $1,500,000 without Social Security.